Categories

Login

Election >>>

PR making inroads into Johor is a dream in GE13

Besides Felda and Felcra settlers who are chosen UMNO supporters as mentioned in the below news article, most Malays in Johor are Javanese who migrated to Malaysia after 1957.

For instance, only 3 out of 20 Malay students in my secondary school’s class are local Malays, the rest are Javanese descendants.

Johor will remain as BN fortress for two reasons, the stronghold in Felda and Felcra settlements and undivided supports from Javanese Malay.

UMNO will win in all Malay constituencies in Johor without doubt regardless there is Chinese support or not.

Nevertheless, Muhyiddin Yassin still need the Chinese and Indian votes to prove that he can get more supports from all races if he wants to bid for PM post.

Johor’s Malay vote may thwart Pakatan’s quest for Putrajaya, say leaders
The Malaysian Insider – 6 hours ago

By Mohd Farhan Darwis

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 3 — Despite Pakatan Rakyat’s (PR) ambitious predictions in Johor for the coming polls, local leaders from the federal opposition front expect to stumble in their quest to unlock the Malay vote, which is seen as the key to break into Umno’s southernmost fortress.

The Malays make up close to 60 per cent of the three million-strong population of Johor, which is also home to a staggering 74 FELDA settlements spread out across 21 state constituencies.

The FELDA Malay vote is often played by BN as its trump card during electoral battles, and has also been credited as among one of the key reasons behind the ruling pact’s survival of the 2008 political tsunami, particularly in Johor.

In Election 2008, BN lost its customary two-thirds parliamentary majority and ceded five states to the opposition, clinging to power only through its successes in Johor and east Malaysia.

But local PR leaders believe a slight 35 per cent vote swing among the Johor’s Malay electorate should suffice to topple BN in Johor in the next polls, provided the pact throws all its muscle behind ensuring that Johor’s non-Malays are willing to go anti-BN.

When met during recent interviews, several leaders told The Malaysian Insider that their respective parties have their sights set on the state’s mixed and urban seats, where the non-Malay voters make up a prominent percentage.

“For the Chinese voters, we are not worried… whether DAP or PKR, or even PAS — if we stand in a Chinese area, voters will opt for PR.

“The mixed areas, where the ratio is 50:50 (Malay:non-Malay) or 60:40 (Malay:non-Malay), we have potential to win… so these areas are our focus,” Johor PAS commissioner Datuk Dr Mahfodz Mohamed told The Malaysian Insider in an interview.

He described the Malay vote as Umno’s “lifeline”, admitting that it would be too difficult for PR to break into this vote bank.

“The Malay seats in the villages, FELDA areas, or Felcra, this is Umno’s lifeline… it’s definitely hard to breach. Perhaps we may have made some inroads but winning these seats would be tough.

“They are safe areas (for Umno), and have been gifted with many things from the party, they feel very obligated to the party there,” Mahfodz said.

He said the second or third generation of voters in the traditionally pro-Umno FELDA settlements may potentially sway towards the opposition but not the first-generation settlers.

PAS Youth chief Shuhaizan Kaiat echoed the same with his party leader, revealing that PAS has even placed Johor’s Malay majority seats as its lowest priority target for the coming general election.

“Areas with a large number of FELDA settlers particularly are our least focused target for votes… even lower than the rural villages as these settlements are difficult for our campaigners to even enter,” he said.

But with an estimated 70 per cent support from the state’s Chinese community, who make up over 35 per cent of Johor’s population, Shuhaizan said the state could well be in the bag for PR in GE13.

“We have no doubts of their support in PR,” he said.

In another interview, Johor Umno Information chief Datuk Sambul Bari Jamali also said he was confident that the state’s dominant Malay community would stay loyal to BN in the coming polls.

“I would not call them PR’s stumbling block, but it is true the Malays in Johor are loyal to their parties, loyal to Umno.

“Maybe PR has the support of some of the Malays in the urban areas, but what they (PR) have to see is this easy indicator — the Malays do make up Johor’s majority,” he said.

In Election 2008, BN returned a strong government in Johor when it trounced the opposition in 25 of 26 parliamentary seats and 50 of 56 state seats.

Without its victories in Johor, BN would have lost the battle in the peninsula to PR, with only 60 federal seats, in comparison with PR’s 79.

Including the Johor seats, BN’s seat tally with PR stood at 85-80.

The nkkhoo.com comment board with Facebook account.
fung woo says:

I am one of the 80000 that joined MCA since 2008.
Hopefully I can get something, although nothing tangible besides free dinner.
Like Mahathir said, those illegals that got IC not necessarily vote for BN.
I shall adopt the same approach on election day with my vote.

ks tan says:

i don’t support bn (mca) or pakatan (eg dap).
mca after over 50 years got a lot of $. without $ nobody can engage villagers.
so my muar friends approach mca becoz they have $ power not becoz they hav brain power.

nkkhoo says:

Not all villagers asking money from MCA.

MCA was championing a village patrol unit when the security in the new village was worsened.

Kuanqiao says:

The patrol unit will spend chinese new year guarding the furniture factories against those mogok Bangla workers?

nkkhoo says:

Another biasness against Muslim?

The troublemakers in the factories are mostly Vietnamese if you know the issue inside out.

ks tan says:

I am not naive. Chua SL said in Oct 2012 Malam Mesra Rakyat dinner at Sultan Ibrahim Stadium in Muar : “The Chinese voters are responding well to MCA’s call for stability. More development will follow if the country is harmonious”. I was there BUT i can assure you that we were there to makan and to expect ang pow money only.

nkkhoo says:

MCA has track record of keeping 50%-60% Chinese votes in Johor. No doubt, MCA is suck in the macro level, but they are quite rapport with the local Chinese community. MCA is only political party in my village when villagers are looking for help.

DAP is a sleeping party in my village for last four over years till the election campaign days.

DAP strategist, Liew is hoping 80% Chinese in Johor will vote PR is a daylight dream. Anyone urging 80% Johor Chinese to support a sleeping party is either to show they are naive or brain damaged.

ks tan says:

never underestimate the Muar Furniture towkays who are now fed up with minimum wage policy. These towkays can generate support against MCA. Also nkkhoo’s much fear green group in Muar or Johor can turn the tide. Just watch out.

nkkhoo says:

Another naive talk. MCA has long engaged Chinese secret societies in Johor to ensure young uneducated Chinese followed their mafia bosses to vote BN.

At least 90% towkays are pro-MCA people in case you are living in the moon.

I only fear green shits burn down factories owned by Chinese towkays after losing hope on BN and PR.

Leslie Loh says:

Based on mathematical simulations, here are several possible post-election scenarios in Johor, assuming Indian support for Pakatan is constant:

– Malay support at 25%, Chinese support at 65%, Pakatan will win just one parliamentary seat in Johor;

– Malay support at 30%, Chinese support at 70%, Pakatan will win six seats;

– Malay support at 30%, Chinese support at 75%, Pakatan will win 12 seats;

– Malay support at 35%, Chinese support at 75%, Pakatan will win 16 seats;

– Malay support at 35%, Chinese support at 80%, Pakatan will win 20 seats.

It showed the posibility that BN’s Johor fortress can crumble in a perfect storm.

nkkhoo says:

My reply in the FreeMalaysiaToday,

I am Johorean, I can tell you why Johoreans still support BN.

BN has taken a very good care for Johor state. An example, Muar city outer ring road was built by Federal government many years ago and no a single toll for the road and new bridge.

While Georgetown outer ring road is still on the board although the project was mooted much earlier.

The four lanes road from Melaka city to Muar also toll free. People in Penang and Kedah can dream for toll free highway.

fung woo says:

My son and daughter are the young generation that does not think like older generation chinese.
To them what MCA has done is their basic obligation as a partner of ruling coalition.
They are voting for a new government to protest against corruption, oppression to civil society and press freedom, unjust to TBH’s family, unfair conditions attached to chinese independent schools, etc… Unlike older generation hanging on to MCA to preserve the above mentioned status quo for fear of imaginary chaos, young voters are opting for change and the wave of tsunami politik from 308 may finally hit Johor. That is the perfect storm that can only be countered by BN bogus voters. You can see many young people responding to Jom Pantau movement.

nkkhoo says:

The elections in the local public universities show young generations especially Malay are still behind BN.

Kuanqiao says:

It shows brainwashing in local universities has made them listen to BN.

Ben Hur says:

14 out of 26 Johor parliamentary constituencies enjoying less than 50% support for UMNO and BN, Melaka has replaced the state as UMNO’s fortress.

http://hornbillunleashed.wordpress.com/2012/11/07/37092/

Hummer says:

MCA is tarnished by Chua CD’s sex issue.

Johor MCA the most can get 30% votes, which is damaging to the party in GE13.

After GE13, MCA may have to auction off The Star paper.

nkkhoo says:

MCA still can get 50% in suburban areas. My new village is 50:50 during last GE.

杰弗 says:

马华不会从柔佛消失的?

http://www.kwongwah.com.my/news/2012/11/05/92.html

文:董格宁

两般政局,两极取向,一言难尽,大家心照。早些年,火箭主催的宴会,沿户卖票,大街小巷,店主和行人,都在摇头。接下来,渐渐有人愿意买票了。但是,最终到场露脸的,寥若晨星。

308海啸一来,政权动摇了,行情也变了。现在的宴会,打印的文宣和高挂的布条,只要加注诸如“林吉祥”或者首席部长的字样,总是一票难求;欲购从速,以免向隅,后悔莫及。

两党宴会,两道风景,一目了然,谁不知道?10月28日,共有多达1万5000名马华公会的粉丝风雨不改,准时到往宽柔中学古来分校参加“要稳定,不要乱,全民共赢之夜”。可惜,蔡总莅临,压轴演讲,多人离席,一点都不给面子。

事隔一日,柔北峇吉里、麻坡、巴莪和礼让区会联合筹办的第二场政治万人宴,筳开800席。结局之际,还是一样:临近尾声,出席者相继离席,不及未等幸运抽奖,留下空椅的尴尬。

10月29日,柔州民行党假士姑来五福城广场举办“告别腐败,迈向布城”政治晚宴。各报显著报道,主办单位估算,会场内外出席人数,共有1万1000人之多,一起跟着州主席巫程豪医生宣读“和平改朝换代,永远告别腐败”。

记者笔录现场的演绎,足见处处震撼:党中央领袖陆陆续续到场,获得当晚出席者的热烈欢迎,纷纷起立,上前亲睹领袖风采,围在嘉宾席上,要求合照,或者签名,尽显“政治明星”的效应。

主席加巴星律师坐在轮椅演讲,不少民众站在台前,近距离拍摄;曾在内安法令下被扣10年的华裔李一平先生在晚宴即将结束,特别送上鲜花给当年替他打官司的加巴星。这到底是怎么一回事?

马华署理总会长廖中莱体贴入微,开口解释,全是好话:“我本身于上周六出席金宝的万人宴也是有超过600桌,即超过6000人出席,即使下雨他们还是在那里支持,一些走的人可能有急事,不代表他们不支持马华,不能这样诠释。”

当然,按照廖中莱的那一套逻辑,民众显现的火红散发的热情,也不代表他们必然支持火箭,“不能这样诠释”。他们可能只是因为羊群心理作祟,一时之间情绪失控,因此overreact(反应过激)了。

所以,这一切,一丝都没有冲击“柔佛是马华堡垒”的既存事实。信不信由你,总之,廖中莱他是信的。而且,他还尝试借此说服大家,一起相信他个人见解独到的这一席惊世判断。

没事的,放心吧。马华是不会从柔佛消失的。不但不会消失,也不会沦为一间微型华小。出席火箭晚宴的粉丝留下来,可能他们没有急事,并不代表他们支持火箭,不能这样诠释。

要是这样,民主行动党全国副宣传秘书张念群律师人在国会苦苦追问复办昔加末独中的下落,为何首相署闪闪躲躲,没正面回答。柔佛州真的是马华的堡垒乎?

眼前的两党宴会,两道风景;当前的两般政局,两极取向,说明什么?尽管马华领袖一再否认,州内的民情、民意、民心、民怨、民愤,难道还不够清楚吗?

两方请客,两股人气,一眼看穿。10月过了,11月来了,第13届大选的脚步渐渐近了。马华未来的气数呢?蔡总到底是应对得体的老江湖,功力远在廖中莱之上;处变不惊,把离席归咎于报章炒作。

两方言辞,两种行情,任君解读。带队的这两头马车,各说各话,报章的炒作若是利矛,署理的自圆其说自然就是厚盾。票箱一开,两岸选民自当知道,马华会不会从柔佛消失了。

nkkhoo says:

This author is too young and naive, he did not know political rallies called by the opposition were overwhelming with huge crowd even before GE12.

Jeff says:

What about the chinese in Johor?
Are they still sticking to MCA?

MCA is banking on the popularity of Najib as they have abandoned their white attire for the blue BN ones. they are using the old strategy of the 90’s hoping that ‘I Love PM’ strategy will make the chinese vote BN, assuming the Chinese like Najib like they love Mahathir then?

nkkhoo says:

Although MCA is suck in macro level who kowtow to UMNO by selling off Chinese in every sector.

Johor MCA is very active in the grassroots level and doing a lot of good services to local communities. They also try to lure young Chinese votes through secret alliance with Chinese secret societies.

At least 50% Chinese males in new villages are members of secret society who may vote MCA if their taikos support MCA.

I think Johor MCA can get 30-50% Chinese votes with their localized services.