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My prediction on KT by-election is a half correct

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Malaysia’s Islamists win key by-election

KUALA TERENGGANU, Malaysia (Reuters) – Malaysia’s opposition Islamist party won a fiercely contested by-election on Saturday in a vote that was cast as a referendum on incoming prime minister Najib Razak.

The Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), part of Anwar Ibrahim’s three-party opposition alliance, won the seat in the Southeast Asian country of 27 million people, by 2,631 votes, overturning a government majority of 628.

The only poll published during the campaign had predicted a narrow PAS victory over the ruling National Front coalition, although it did not specify a margin.

Read more at http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE50G1OC20090117

My forecast in Anil’s blog was BN wins the KT by-election with the assumption that Malay voters are split to 50:50 and Chinese voters swing to BN. Many local political analysts believed that Malay voters split up to 50:50 and Chinese swing to PAS were proven all wrong althought the end result is still correct.

Chinese high turnout in the ceramahs had giving false signal to DAP that Chinese are solidly behind the Pakatan Rakyat. For many Chinese like me, PAS and UMNO are like a crocodile and a tiger with PAS is inclined to […]